An Early Look at the NL West

The Diamondbacks seem to remember how last year’s NL West turned out, and who could forget with the first place team winning by a game and both the Rockies and the Padres tying for second. They also seem to remember that they had some serious problems scoring runs, baffling the statisticians by winning 90 games while scoring 20 fewer runs than they allowed. Seems like the inhabitants of the Valley of the Sun want to prove they can win games with the bat, scoring 93 runs in 15 games, tops in the NL and 13 ahead of the second place Cubs. On top of that, they have at least 31 more runs then anyone else in the NL West; the Diamondbacks are out to prove last year was no fluke, and with Mark Reynolds, Justin Upton and (the other) Chris Young all slugging 5 home runs this early in the season its no wonder they can't help but win 8 in a row.

Just because they know how to hit doesn’t mean the D’backs forgot how to pitch, allowing just the 5^th fewest amount of runs behind the work of the now 4-0 Brandon Webb, who is tied for 4^th in all of baseball for strikeouts, Dan Haren who is 2-0 with 5 earned runs in 18 innings, and Micah Owings who is 3-0 with a 2.29 ERA and 19 K’s in 19 2/3 innings pitched. All 3 at the top of Arizona’s rotation have been lights out, and with the newly activated Randy Johnson this rotation is one of the tops in all of baseball, not just the National League.

Its not the Popes, it’s not the Friars, no it isn’t even the Cardinals (that’s the NL Central folks), it’s the Padres holding second. Although they’ve been successful, they’ve put all the pressure on the starting rotation to get things done. Lucky for Bud Black, they haven’t had a starter disappoint. Cy Peavy has been lights out in his first 3 starts, averaging 7 1/3 inning pitched. Greg Maddux is just being Greg Maddux; he wont rack up the strike outs but he knows how to make the youngest rookie and the oldest pro uneasy and confused in the batter’s box, with perhaps the greatest control in history. Randy Wolf just came off a no-no through 6 1/3 and has only 3 runs given up in 19 innings with 18 strikeouts. Even the 5^th pitcher in the rotation, Justin Germano is running amok with a whip of 1.00 and an ERA of 1.35 in 20 innings, allowing all 3 of his earned runs in one game. Chris Young is the only one not pitching up to par, but when 4 out of 5 of your starters are pitching at an ace quality level its hard not to stay competitive.

But the Padres are far from perfect. With Hoffman not being the reliable closer he used to be, and the rest of their bullpen coughing up leads left and right they won’t be able to keep up, especially with the way the Diamondbacks have been playing. LA is only one game back and with a far fiercer 1-8 the Dodgers could easily surpass the Padres and make a run for first place; that is if they can stay healthy. Benching Juan Pierre, one of the weakest hitting outfielders in baseball (and for a Giants fan to rip an outfielder for being a weak hitter must tell you it’s bad, try .353 SLG bad last year), was the right call on Torre’s part, and with this young team full of prospective talent and future power, you can’t help but think how good this team could be. And with 5 fewer runs allowed and 21 more runs scored than the Padres, on paper the Dodgers should be 3 games up, not a game back of them.

Bring up the rear are the pennant winning Rockies and the cellar-dwelling Giants. Both have been equally inconsequential on both sides of the ball, with the Rockies lacking the usual Rocky pop but with the usual pitching woes and the Giants playing as expected. While the Rockies have probably just caught a slow start after being swept out of the Series, the Giants non-battery is the saddest excuse for a lineup that Giants have ever seen. There isn’t much hope for the Giants to climb out of the cellar, and unless they make some fundamental changes at the corners there isn’t any logic in hoping for anything less than 85 losses.

Baseball is so Poetic

Brian Wilson...

lackadaisical (9:53:19 PM): all i see is blood
Docter Hojo (9:53:24 PM): all i feel is blood


Bengie Molina.

Docter Hojo (10:39:37 PM): SHOOOOOOOOOOOTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT
lackadaisical (10:39:39 PM): WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
lackadaisical (10:39:41 PM): WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Docter Hojo (10:39:43 PM): woooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
lackadaisical (10:39:59 PM): bengie saves the world

At least the Tigers are 0-6

Before the season, with optimism slightly abound, people were saying, "how are the Giants going to lose 100?"

Now, it feels like more of a question of "how are the Giants going to win 50?"

What the hammer? What the chain? In what furnace was Sabean's brain? Today's lineup would be an average offense... in AAA. Twelve monkeys and Tim McCarver would've put together a better offense. I did some research, but I have yet to find an offense in major league history with this level of futility. Every team I've found had at least two people with an OPS+ over 100.

Barf. Vomit. Phlegm.

A gamer would rather hit into a double play than wave to the cameras.

At least the Giants miss Peavy in the next series; I feel that's almost a guaranteed shutout. Wonder if Webb and Haren will pitch in next week's series though...

Over/Under on shutouts this season: 17.5

Losing, Predictions, Shakespeare, Oh My!

The Giants receive their first shellacking of the year, Brad Hennessey has a 37.80 ERA, and Jose Castillo leads the team in extra-base hits. What better time to write my first post, and first wrong but fearless prediction?

The Detroit Tigers will miss the playoffs

"Time shall unfold what plaited cunning hides: / Who cover faults, at last shame them derides"

-King Lear, I, i

I wish I wrote this post before they ran out of the gate 0-4; I'd look a lot smarter. Steve Phillips says the Tigers will score 1000 runs this year. They won't. PECOTA has the Tigers scoring 849 runs, while Baseball Musings' Run Projections has them at 904 runs, and looking at their lineup, they would need every player to be as good or better than they performed last year, which includes Maggs repeating his out-of-nowhere 87.8 VORP and 1.028 OPS (not happening, both I and PECOTA see that OPS dropping at least 100 points) and Edgar Renteria putting up numbers he hasn't come close to approaching in six years. They would also need all of their players to be healthy for the whole year, as replacing Miguel Cabrera or Curtis Granderson with Brandon Inge would be like replacing foie gras with earwax (which has already happened in this young year). The 2008 Tigers offense is going to look more like the 2007 Tigers (which isn't exactly bad, they scored 887 runs) than the 1927 Yankees.

And as Cordelia so eloquently elaborated above, time will always remove the clothes that cover your faults, and the long baseball season will remove the offense that covers the Tiger's fault - pitching. Jeremy Bonderman and Nate Robertson combined have had 2 years where they were average starters (ERA+ > 98), Kenny Rogers is 43... 43!, and Dontrelle Willis's WHIP over the last two years is 1.491, which coupled with his pedestrian strikeout rate makes for a fringe 3rd-or-4th level starter. Verlander is the only plus pitcher on the entire rotation, and even though he is quite a plus, he's only going to pitch once every 5 games, if that.

If the Tiger's rotation is mediocre, their bullpen is abysmal. The best comparison I could find is that the Tiger's bullpen = the Giants offense. Out of their entire non-DL'd bullpen, only Aquilino Lopez (17.3 innings), Yorman Bazardo (23.3 innings), and Bobby Seay (LOOGY, 46.3 innings) had WHIPs below 1.40, which means from innings 7-9, it's pure pain. If only Zumaya would quit playing Guitar Hero or moving 50-60 pound boxes with his dad.

So this is what will go down by October - Indians take the division, Tigers wistfully watch the Yankees win the wild card, and gas prices will eat away at my college tuition.